The rupee bull: Late Diwali or early Christmas?

Diwali marks the holiday shopping season in India, much like the Christmas holiday in the United States.

This year, however, Diwali has come late (or Christmas has come early) as the ever strengthening rupee presents challenges and opportunities for US and Indian companies.

The US dollar has shrunk to its lowest value in the last 15 years against a basket of currencies. So far this year the dollar is down 12% against the rupee. In contrast, the euro is only down 1.2%. There appears to be no short term end to the dollar fall as Lehman Brothers has predicted that the rupee may appreciate to Rs33 per US$ within the next five years.

Wayne Rogers is a senior adviser in the international law firm of Sonnenschein Nath & Rosenthal, where he specializes in international trade and cross-border transactions. He may be reached at +1-202-408-6478 or wrogers@sonnenschein.com.